GOP’s Kari Lake is trailing behind Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego, and according to the latest polls, the Democrat is four points ahead.
Lake, Gallego, and Sinema
The poll was conducted between three likely candidates, though it is unknown if independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema will run for reelection. Gallego announced his bid in January.
The polls sided with Gallego
Andrew Desiderio, a congressional reporter from Punchbowl News, announced on X, “NRSC poll presented to GOP senators at lunch today has Ruben Gallego cruising in a 3-person contest w/ Kari Lake & Sen. Kyrsten Sinema.” The results showed that Gallego has 41, Lake 37, and Sinema 17 points.
Sinema is splitting the Republican vote, not the Democrat, the reporter confirmed. In a follow-up on X, Desiderio wrote, “Sen. Lindsey Graham stood up during the meeting and said Lake is going to be the GOP nominee in Arizona, so Republicans need to help her campaign.”
Another poll suggested a similar situation
Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling conducted a survey in early October. The organization found Gallego had 41 percent, while Lake gained 36. Sinema earned 15 percent of the vote. Around 8 percent were unsure of who to choose.
Lake urged voters to express their support
“I need your help getting on the ballot,” Lake said in a video, a link to an online petition for registered voters to sign. It is unclear if Lake still needs signatures or if it is about something else.
Lake’s battle with Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs
Lake lost the gubernatorial race to Democrat Hobbs and filed numerous complaints. The state Court of Appeals said that the Trump-endorsed candidate did not have proof but “sheer speculation.”
Hobbs won by 17,000 votes
The Democrat won by 17,000 votes, and Lake’s team argued, per the AP, that “alleged chaos (was) created by the technical problems had disenfranchised Republican voters. They claimed the chain of custody for ballots was broken at an off-site facility.”
Reasons why Lake is asking for signatures
Talking to Newsweek, David Schultz, a professor of political science and legal studies at Hamline University, suggested several reasons why Lake is trying to control the Arizona race. He said, “Given she is an election skeptic and claims she lost the last election because of fraud, she wants proof beyond proof that she has qualified for the ballot, and therefore, there is no way election officials in the state can say she did not qualify.”
Reason number two
Shultz added, “She may fear retaliation from election officials from all her lawsuits and therefore wants to guard against them pushing her off the ballot or saying she does not qualify. Also, more signatures means lists of more potential supporters who may give her money or support.”
Reason number three
It is also possible that Lake is” trying to get enough signatures to prevent or make it harder for other Republicans or candidates to get on the ballot,” the professor added.
FiveThirtyEight sided with Gallego
Gallego is set to win the Arizona Senate seat FiveThirtyEight shared, adding that almost all polls concluded the same. However, when it comes to polls, the margin of error could play a significant role.
Lake and Gallego could be tied
With a margin of error of 4.4 in the NRSC poll, it would put Lake and Gallego neck to neck. However, a Noble Predictive Insights survey from August placed Gallego 10 points above Lake, though it is all still a guessing game.
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